Recent expectations from analysts and predictions from Sony execs have said that Blu-ray is well on its way to outselling standard-definition DVDs by 2011. But here are several reasons why I think Blu-ray will never reach the market saturation that DVDs have reached.

1. People are still buying DVDs to replace their VHS collection.
The mass consumers are still trying to replace their old VHS tapes, never mind a high-definition replacement. So now they are being asked to scrap their DVD collections?

2. Blu-ray products are still too expensive. Blu-ray ray will surge when BD players drop to $100 and Blu-ray Discs cost the same as DVDs. But until then I don’t think you will see any mass movement towards Blu-ray.

3. DVD up-converters are improving. New technology actually makes standard DVDs look great on HDTVs. If you sit far enough back from your TV, you may not be able to tell the difference. Toshiba is also expected to come out with a new up-converter further improves the technology.

4. Many DVD titles not available on Blu-ray. As mentioned above, some people are still looking to replace their VHS collection, and many obscure movies are hard to find. Blu-ray is still in the beginning stages of covering all movie titles.

5. Digital Downloads will become the mainstream way to view high-definition movies. This is the main reason why I think Blu-ray will never outsell DVD. Look what has happened with CDs. Everyone is downloading music now, music stores have closed, and iTunes taken off. This will eventually happen to movies, and while I believe packaged media will survive for a long time, especially special collections, most movies will just be files on a hard-drive.